The Impact of Climate Change on Pakistan's Agriculture sector: Evidence from OLS Regression & Co-integration
PDF

Keywords

Climate change, Weather, Average rainfall

How to Cite

Uddin, I., & Khoso, J. R. (2019). The Impact of Climate Change on Pakistan’s Agriculture sector: Evidence from OLS Regression & Co-integration. Journal of Economic Info, 6(4), 1-4. https://doi.org/10.31580/jei.v6i4.929

Abstract

Abstract: According to Ministry of Finance of Pakistanin the year 2016-17, agriculture sector contributed to GDP 19.8% and employees about 42.3% a labor force in country. Pakistan has been ranked 7th  in climate change by theGlobal climate rise index in 2017, this rank indicates a great challenge for the Pakistan in agriculture sector due to further climate change in future.There are few gases such as greenhouse gases, CO2, carbon dioxide, methane and nitro oxide that mainly are responsible for changes to global climate. The climate change leads to change in rainfall, sea level and flow of water due to increase in temperature. There are many variables which may affect output of agriculture sector of Pakistan but in this study author mainly focused temperature and rainfall in terms of climate change.  This study is based on secondary data from year 2000 to 2015.The monthly data of temperature and rainfall has been collected from world economic indicator and 12 months’ data was divided for converting these variables into average. Agriculture GDP output collected from Economic Survey of Pakistan’s various annual issues.  Agriculture GDP output in terms of percentage, average rainfall mm andaverage temperature in centigradevariables have been used for the conclusion ofmain objective of this study.Data analyzed through various statistical techniques such as unit root test, OLS regression analysis and Johnson co-integration in E-view 7 version.The estimated results revealed that theaverage rainfall mm has negative and significant impact but average temperature has positive and insignificant impact on agriculture GDP output in terms of percentage in short run.

https://doi.org/10.31580/jei.v6i4.929
PDF

References

Ahmad, B. S., Haider, S. A., Bukhari, A. (2015) ‘Regional Precipitation Response to Regional Warming in Past and Future Climate’, Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, Vol. 11, Issue 22: Jan, 2015, pp.57-75
Adnan, M., Rehman, N., M. M. Sheikh, M.M, Khan A.A, K. A. Mir, K.A, Khan, M.A (2016) ‘Influence of Natural Forcing Phenomena on Precipitation of Pakistan’, Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, Vol. 12, Issue 24: Jan, 2016, pp. 23-35
Babar, S., Gul, S., Amin, A., Mohammad, I (2015) ‘Climate Change: Region and Season Specific Agriculture Impact Assessment (Thirty Year Analysis of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa)’, FWU Journal of Social Sciences, Summer 2015, Vol.9, No.1, pp. 89-98
Badjeck, A.B.E., (2010) ‘Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods’, Direct science, pp. 375-383.
Calvosa, C., Chuluunbaatar, D. and Fara,K. (2009) ‘Livestock And Climate Change: Livestock Thematic Papers Tools For Project Design’, www.ifad.org/lrkm/factsheet/women.pdf.
Chaudhry, Q. Z. (2009) ‘Construction of All Pakistan Monsoon Rainfall Series 1901 – 2008,’ Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, Vol. 6; Issue 12, Dec 2009.
Cheung, W.W.L, Vicky, W.Y. L., Jorge, L. S., Kearney, K., Watson, R., andPauly, D. (2009) ‘Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios’, Blackwell Publishing Ltd, F I S H and F I S H E R I E S , 10, pp. 235–251
Doyle, T.W., Ken, W. K., William, H.C., From, A.S. (2010) ‘Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise’, Forest Ecology and Management 259 (2010) pp. 770–777
Iqbal, W., Zahid, M. (2014) ‘Historical and Future Trends of Summer Mean Air Temperature over South Asia’, Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, Vol.10, Issue 20: Jan,2014, pp. 67-74
Ikram, F., Afzaal, M., Bukhari, S. A. A., Ahmed, B. (2016) ‘Past and Future Trends in Frequency of Heavy Rainfall Events over Pakistan’, Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, Vol. 12, Issue 24: Jan, 2016, pp. 57-78
Javed, S.A., Ahmad, M., Iqbal, M. (2014) ‘Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Pakistan: A District Level Analysis’, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad, pp. 1-23
JANJUA, P.Z., SAMAD, G., and KHAN, N.U (2010) ‘Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan’, The Pakistan Development Review 49:4 Part II (Winter 2010), pp. 799–822
Kreft, S., Eckstein, D., and Melchior, I. (2017) ‘Global Climate Risk Index 2017’, Climate Risk Index.
Kumar, P., Rasul, G., Kumar, D. (2013) ‘Evaporation Estimation from Climatic Factors’, Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, Vol. 9, Issue 18: Jan 2013, pp. 51-57
Keith Brander (2010), Impacts of climate change on fisheries, Journal of Marine Systems 79 (2010), pp. 389–402
Lucier, A., Ayres, M., Karnosky, D., Thompson, I., Loehle, C., Percy, K., Sohngen, B. (2009) ‘Forest responses and vulnerability to recent’, Climate change, pp.29-52.
Naheed, G., Cheema S.B. (2015) ‘Impact of Rainfall Frequency during Late Spring Season on Wheat Crop in Major Agricultural Plains of Pakistan’, Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, Vol. 12, Issue 23: Jul, 2015, pp. 43-48.
Naqvi, S. M. (2011) ‘Global Climate Change: Role of Livestock’, Asian Journal for Agricultural, pp. 19-25.
Prasad, P.R.C (2015) ‘Climate Change Research – What Do We Need Really’? PAPERS on GLOBAL CHANGE, pp. 117–121
Piracha, A., and Majeed, Z. (2011) ‘Water Use in Pakistan’s Agricultural Sector: Water Conservation under the Changed Climatic Conditions’, International Journal of Water Resources and Arid Environments 1(3): 170-179, 2011 ISSN, pp. 2079-7079
Robert, B. Z., and Kim, K.J (2012) ‘The World Bank Annual Report 2012, Volume 3, Annexes, World Bank Annual Report, Washington, DC
Shaista, S., Gondal, M.S (2010-11) ‘Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Report’, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
Shakoor, U., Saboor, A., Ali I., and Mohsin A.Q (2011) ‘Impact of Climate Change On Agriculture: Empirical Evidence from Arid Region’, Pak. J. Agri. Sci., Vol. 48(4), pp. 327-333.
Salma, S.S., Rehman, M., Shah, A. (2012) ‘Rainfall Trends in Different Climate Zones of Pakistan, Pakistan Journal of Meteorology’, Vol. 9, Issue 17: Jul 2012, pp. 37-47
Thornton, P.K., (2010) ‘Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects’ Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2010) 365, pp. 2853–2867
Uzma H., Haider, S., Ahmad R., and Malik, K. (2016), ‘Economic Impact Of Climate Change On Agricultural Sector Of Punjab’, Research gate
Wasti, E., (2017-18), “Economic Survey of Pakistan”, Ministry of Finance, Islamabad.
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.